ADVANCES

PGPfone 1.0 Beta

To follow up on the success of his public-key encryption program, PGP, Phil Zimmerman recently released a Beta version of PGPfone, encrypted voice software for Apple Macs. PGPfone runs native on both 68k and PowerMacs, allowing you to use your computer as a secure telephone either over Appletalk or by modem.

Unlike PGP, which uses the RSA and IDEA encryption algorithms, PGPfone uses the Diffie-Hellman public key algorithm to exchange keys, and gives a choice of either Triple-DES or Blowfish to encrypt the conversation. Triple-DES is considered to be one of the most secure encryption algorithms available, but is CPU-intensive. Blowfish has been subject to much less analysis, but is fast and probably of a similar security level.

On startup PGPfone displays a window with a box to enter either the telephone number to call or the name of a Mac on the Appletalk network. When this has been entered, the computer will attempt to open a connection to the PGPfone program running on the other machine, and if successful the recipient will hear a realistic

rendition of an old-style telephone ring and may choose to answer or ignore the call (there is no equivalent to caller-id included).

When the call is answered the computers will spend several seconds exchanging keys. The Diffie-Hellman algorithm is secure against eavesdroppers, and unlike RSA if an encrypted conversation is recorded, even the people who made the call will not be able to decrypt it later. However, an active attacker can break into the key

exchange as it occurs, so PGPfone displays a list of four words based on the exchanged key. If the same list is displayed to both users, then they can be sure that no such break-in has occurred.

Because of the wide variation in performance of different Macs and modems, PGPfone includes a variety of speech compression algorithms, based on the GSM algorithm used for digital cellphones but with data rates from 4410 Hz up to 11025 Hz. The default 5512 Hz setting is tolerable, and the best rate better than a standard telephone, however while speech at the slowest rate can be understood it is difficult to distinguish different speakers. An additional problem is a noticeable propagation delay, taking around one second for speech to be transmitted and decoded.

Two PowerMacs connected over Appletalk will happily run at the fastest rate using Triple-DES, though occasional dropouts occur. Slower Macs, or those using 14.4k or 9.6k modems, will have to select a lower rate, and very slow Macs will have to run in ‘half-duplex’ mode, with a ‘Press to Talk’ button similar to CB radio.

For a Beta, the software is very robust, aside from one bug which crashes your machine with some Appletalk setups if you attempt to connect without specifying a machine name. Otherwise it is a worthy counterpart to PGP, and hopefully will become just as widespread.

Windows95/NT and Internet support are promised for the final release. I look forward to both.

PGPfone is available by ftp from net-dist.mit.edu in /pub/PGPfone for US and Canadian users, or from utopia.hacktic.nl in /pub/voice for the rest of the world. Due to US ITAR restrictions you should not download the software from MIT if you are outside the US and Canada!

INTRODUCTION

This is the “beta” test introduction of a new Advances feature for Extropy. Long time readers will remember the Intelligence At Work section from the early issues.

Advances will feature short summaries of advances in science and technology. Our focus will be on developments that further our extropic goals of extended life, intensified intelligence, increased freedom, and other ways of overcoming human limits.

Advances will also present economic information, especially as it relates to standards of living and investment opportunities in technological companies. —MM

Direct all contributions of information for this section to Advances Editor Eric Watt Forste: arkuat@pobox.com or send to Extropy, Advances, 13428 Maxella Avenue, #273, Marina Del Rey, CA 90292.

SPACE

ULYSSES IS NOW PASSING OVER THE SUN’S NORTH POLAR REGION. Launched in 1990, the Ulysses spacecraft does not take photographs but instead monitors the magnetic fields and the fluxes of cosmic rays and solar wind particles in the greater solar environment. Now that Ulysses has gone over the top its main task has been fulfilled, but scientists are hoping that the mission can be extended at least to the year 2000, when the craft would return to the solar antipodes at a time when the sun would be in the most active phase of its 11-year cycle.

(Eos, 25 July 1995.)

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NANOTECHNOLOGY

TWO IMPORTANT AND INDEPENDENT ADVANCES in nanotechnology were announced this summer:

1. Carbon tubes of nanometer diameter have been around for about 4 years, but until now nobody could do much with them. In the current issue of Nature it’s reported that molten vanadium oxide can form a coating on the carbon tubes, the carbon can then be dissolved away using conventional chemical techniques leaving pure vanadium oxide tubes of nanometer diameter.

Unlike carbon, vanadium oxide is active optically and so can be used as an optical switch in a super fast computer. Also vanadium oxide is a powerful

catalyst for many chemical reactions so it might be possible to use the tiny tubes as molds for all sorts of different materials.

2. MOVING ATOMS around with a scanning tunneling microscope is, of course, old hat but it has not been possible to break individual

chemical bonds between atoms, until now. In the June 16 issue of Science it’s shown that if electrons of the correct energy are shot at an atom from the tip of a scanning tunneling microscope the atom will resonate and the resulting vibration will break the chemical bond.

We can now do chemistry, and not just physics on atoms one at a time. The

procedure is somewhat faster than expected and does not require any exotic conditions such as very low temperature. J.W.Lyding, one of the authors of this report, is quoted as saying “We’d like to make small, electronic devices on the nanometer scale”.

DENSE ARRAYS OF NANOWIRES can now be made. Huber and colleagues at the Naval Surface Warfare Center in Maryland forced molten metal into 250 nm-diameter channels using injection molding. Most of the wires in the resulting array were conductive. Researchers aim to reduce the size of the channels to 3 nm. Metals used in this study include tin, indium, aluminum, and several semiconductors.

Scanning tunneling microscope

[Science, 11 Feb 94]

ATOMICALLY PERFECT fullerene gears have been designed in simulations at NRL with 5-8 sprockets and 290-464 atoms. A fullerene shaft was added to a six-tooth gear. During a simulation, one gear was spun up the other from stationary to 20 gigarev/sec in a quarter of a turn. The overall bind

ing energies were determined to be more stable than C60.

[Novel Forms of Carbon II, 283-288]

CARBYNE RODS with chain lengths over 300 carbon atoms were synthesized by Lagow et al. Rod logic nanocomputer proposals by Drexler involve just these kind of rods in their construction. It is therefore encouraging that these rods are stable at room temperature despite the absence of any structure to prevent collisions.

[Science 267:362-367, 20Jan 95]

NEUROSCIENCE

A SILICON DEVICE FOR TRIGGERING ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY IN A NERVE CELL has been constructed, opening possibilities for two-way, non-toxic communication between computer chips and nerve cells. Previous devices for stimulating nerve cells were metallic devices generating ordinary electric currents. Not only do such devices have corrosion-prone electrodes, but their currents create electrochemical byproducts and heat that could damage the nerve cells and themselves.

The silicon device, constructed by researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Biochemistry in Germany, contains a “stimulation spot” that triggers neural activity simply through the rearrangement of electric charge. Insulated by silicon oxide, the stimulation spot has a size (between 10 and 50 microns) matched to that of a leech nerve cell to which

it is connected. A voltage pulse applied to the spot rearranges electric charge on the silicon oxide film and the insulating membrane of the nerve cell, creating a buildup of positive charge in the nerve cell which causes it to fire above a certain threshold. The silicon device is capable of triggering a single nerve cell without affecting other nearby neurons.

The device complements the previously designed “neuron transistor,” which receives ionic signals from nerve cells and transcribes them to electronic signals in silicon. “These two devices join the two worlds of information processing, the silicon world of the computer and the water-world of the brain,” says the Max Planck Institute’s Peter Fromherz (fromherz@vms.biochem.mpg.de). Developing this device for biomedical applications, such as computer-controlled artificial limbs, is not envisioned at the present moment, as researchers will first need to build and understand devices that interact with connective tissue and other non-neuronal cells in the body.

[Physics News Update, The American Institute of Physics Bulletin of Physics News # 236 August 7, 1995 by Phillip F. Schewe and Ben Stein]

SYNTHETIC BRAIN: Building an “artificial brain” by 2001 is the goal of researchers at STR laboratories in Kyoto, Japan. According to ATR computer scientist Hugo de Garis, the CAM-Brain Project intends to create a silicon brain with more than a billion artificial neurons.

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Designing and building such a massive device in all its details would not be feasible. What researchers will start with a neural network running on a massively parallel computer. They will use a form of artificial life called cellular automata to make links so that the system builds itself up into an extremely complex system.

In this “evolutionary engineering”, as de Garis calls it, the cellular automata, each of which is a computer, sends signals to other cellular automata which spur growth through something like the synaptic connections in biological brains. At the current stage of the project, the connections are growing in a plane, but they will soon start to connect up in three dimensions. De Garis refers to the artificial brain as a type of “Darwin Machine” because of the evolutionary manner in which it develops.

INTERNET

WWW Growth: 1993: 443,931% 1994: 1,713%

Countries connected to the Net: 1993: 137 1994: 159

Number of US invention patents available for searching on the Internet: over 158,000

At current growth rates, estimated time at which everyone on Earth will be on the Internet: 2004

Estimated number of subscribers to online services: 12 million

Dataquest estimate of revenues for online services in

1997: $3.3 billion

Approximate number of domain name requests, per minute, handled by the InterNIC: 1.2

Estimated number of Internet hosts at the end of the century: 101 million

Past issues and citations to sources can be found at http://www.openmarket.com/info/internet-index/. internet-index-request@OpenMarket.com.

COMPUTERS

PERSONAL COMPUTER sales are expected to reach 100 million per year by the end of the decade.

CYRIX expects to ship in December ‘95 a fast Pentium-compatible chip. Cyrix’s chip reportedly runs 1.2 to 1.3 times faster than an equivalent Pentium. Cyrix currently has about 7% of the 486 chip market. It could hold up to 10% of the Pentium-level market in 1996. Another incentive for Intel to keep accelerating development times.

COMPUTERS AGAINST BLINDNESS: Computer technology may be starting to restore partial sight to some blind people. Dr. Joseph Rizzo and colleagues have developed a tiny computer chip which will float on the retina. This solar-powered computer uses electricity provided by a laser beam emitted from special eyeglasses. The eyeglasses have miniature TV cameras in place of lenses.

The chip consists of two layers. The solar cells are

on the top layer. Underneath is the circuitry. A strip emerges from the layers bearing electrodes that send signals through the retina’s nerves to the brain.

The ingenious glasses use optical detectors developed from those used in video cameras. They convert images into coded streams of light pulses conveyed by laser to the chip. Researchers expect the chip to allow only a narrow visual field. However, the practical difference between that and no vision at all will be immense.

and stands for Visa, MasterCard International Inc., and Europay International. These three companies agreed to the standard, specifying both cards and processing terminals, in September ‘95. Cards using the standard can be used anywhere in the world participating in the program.

Ivan Yim, country manager of Visa for Hong Kong and Macao, said of the Visa Compass Card: “It is the world’s first and Hong Kong’s first VME compatible program. Throughout

These retinal chip implants are the latest computer based sensory aid. Already in use are electronic cochlear implants which have allowed almost 10% of previously deaf persons receiving them to hear well enough to hold a telephone conversation.

Researcher Dr. Joseph Rizzo is a neurologist and ophthalmologist at Harvard Medical School.

ELECTRONIC MONEY takes another step. Visa International Inc. announced a credit card, to be issued first in Hong Kong, conforming to a new standard for “smart card” computer chips. The standard is called VME,

Asia/Pacific, there are a number of issuing banks and non-bank financial institutions who are in the race to launch chip card programs.” Partners with Visa in the Compass Card project are Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., and Dao Heng Bank Group’s subsidiary OTB Card Co.

The current strips found on the backs of credit cards can hold only a line or two of information. These will gradually be replaced with a chip capable of storing the equivalent of two pages of text.

Visa expects to encourage use of the card through a “frequent buyer” program. Visa Compass cardholders can collect points by spend-

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ing any any of 12 million Visa merchants around the world. The points are turned into cash that can be spend at 300 retailers in Hong Kong.

Mastercard has been trying pilot programs for the cards in a number of places, but pervasive use of the cards isn’t expected for a year. Credit cards initially were accepted only reluctantly in Asia according to Visa’s Yim. Yim stated that Visa averaged 20 percent growth a year in sales in Hong Kong. Sales last year were up to $5.2 billion out of $83 billion in the Asia/Pacific region.

Oct 13, 1995

ECONOMY

THE PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX has puzzled economists and frustrated businesses. The paradox refers to close to static productivity despite a flood of new information technologies. Part of the problem has been the difficulty of taking into account many ways in which increased productivity shows up in an information-based economy. Finally, despite measurement shortcomings, the USA is seeing an acceleration in productivity gains.

Nonfarm business productivity growth is growing:

Productivity annual growth

1973 Q3 to 1980 Q1 0.6%

1980 Q1 to 1981 Q3 0.7%

1981 Q3 to 1990 Q3 0.9%

1990 Q3 to 1995 Q1 2.2%

The last five years have seen such an improvement that the USA has the highest productivity and creates more jobs than any other industrial country. All this despite a savings rate kept low by heavy income taxation. Over a few years, this improved growth in productivity generates enormous wealth. Raising productivity by only 0.5% for 10 years produces an additional $300 billion.

These figures are likely to be revised downward slightly when the government statisticians revise their measures soon. However, these measures fail to account for many improvements in services and proliferation of consumer options. Other accounting choices artificially understate productivity. For instance, although much spending on capital involves purchasing software, this is not counted as investment.

The investment in information technology is finally paying off. An MIT survey of nearly 400 companies suggested a better than 50% return on investment in these technologies. We can explain the productivity paradox in terms of a learning process for new technologies. Information technology, to significantly boost output, requires new ways of working, new organizational structures, and more flexibility. Rigidly hierarchical and inflexible corporate organizations worked well for mass production but do

not suit many of today’s industries. Information technology is paying off as corporations learn to shift towards more flexibility—adhocracy, flattened hierarchies, and self-managing teams. This process is just getting under way on a large scale.

As state schools deliver ever-worsening schoolings, ill preparing graduates for the new technologies, businesses are taking up the slack. Over the last decade formal company training has increased by almost half. Helping the process, software is becoming ever more easy to use, allowing relative novices to perform tasks previously demanding advanced skills.

(Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics.)

CPI ADJUSTMENTS: A panel of economists headed by Michael Boskin (previously head of the Council of Economic Advisors) argue that the consumer price index (CPI) has been showing the inflation rate as about one percentage point higher than it should. One consequence: workers are better off than had been thought. It has looked like real wages had declined by 0.2% per year since 1990. However, if the critics of the current CPI measure are right, real wages have advanced 0.8% annually. Hourly compensation, including medical and retirement benefits, has done even better, up 1.3% per year.

If the statistical bias is

corrected, the budget deficit in 2005 should be $140 billion less than otherwise. This would result from lower expenditure on inflation-adjusted programs such as Social Security.

ANOTHER SIGN that the fear of the Asian monster is outdated: The USA had 63 personal computers per 100 people employed. Japan has 17. Japan’s growth in productivity between 1990 and 1994 was lower than that of the U.S., at about 2.4%.

POPULATION

POPULATION GROWTH in the developing nations is slowing rapidly. Many will consider that good news. A case can be made for the contrary view: more people, at least when well educated, means more brains solving problems, and bigger markets with greater specialization.

The economists are turning out to be right, and the doomsaying ecologists wrong: population growth is slowing as less developed countries become wealthier and family planning takes effect. In the 1960s six children were born to women on average in developing countries. That figure has plummeted to 3.5. China’s fertility rate is now below the replacement level of 2.1. The rapidly growing income of Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, and Singapore has kept their fertility rates low.

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